the ability to produce a weapon in a very short time if necessary

This is a somewhat baroque presidential election taking place today in Iran. First because it will appoint a President who is in fact that the number two of the regime, behind the almost behaviour guide of the Islamic revolution, ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Then, because it mixes the dictatorial aspects other genuinely democratic, to the point that a defeat of the outgoing President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is not excluded. If the Council of guardians, as usual, invalidated all applications unsuitable for the regime, or hundreds of people, however, the vote will be relatively sincere because the revolutionary guards do not have the capacity to rig the result on a large scale.

Everything will depend on the forbearance

Surprisingly, as in 2005, where he had defeated the candidate preferred the establishment, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, supported informally by the Supreme Leader and the conservative clergy, could thus be defeated by his main opponent, Mir Hussein Moussavi, supposed to represent the "reformers" or the "pragmatic". At such point that indicated yesterday evening, of good source in Tehran, Ali Khamenei advisors sought, by panic, if it should not be strongly "encourage" the other candidate for the Conservatives, Rezaee, to withdraw at the last moment to avoid scatter the conservative vote.

Everything should depend mainly on forbearance: if it exceeds 50, it should guarantee safeguard the victory of Ahmadinejad, closely supported by the rural and poor. Conversely, Mir Hussein Moussavi may be elected or at least pushing his opponent in a second round in the event of mobilization of young people (two thirds of Iranians were not born in 1979 during the Islamic Revolution) and the middle classes, who preferred the polls over the years due to discredit suffered reformers whenever they came to power. However, said a diplomat in Tehran, the interest of the urban for this poll seems no equivalent for years, at the end of a lively, even acrimonious campaign. The debate televised in eight days, in which Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been strongly taken in part by his three opponents, has thus been the effect of a political earthquake. He has since threatened to complain to insult against his opponents, who have appealed to the Supreme Leader. One of the leaders of the guardians of the revolution, Castra of the regime, yesterday accused supporters of Mir Hussein Moussavi to plan a "Velvet Revolution" on the orders of the West, one of his deputies adding that he was ready to "break the neck" of these opponents. Facebook, massively used by Mir Hussein Moussavi during the election campaign, has also been blocked for three days.

A few privatizations

However, the election of Mir Hussein Moussavi in fact not change much with the policy of the country. He would obviously not be permitted to question the material and political interests of the clergy. There, in addition, no intention of laïciser Iranian society nor to renounce the nuclear programme, and everything indicates that it is the production of nuclear weapons or, at least, to achieve the "nuclear threshold", i.e. the ability to produce a weapon in a very short time if necessary. The atomic bomb is perceived, says an analyst, as a crucial life insurance for the regime but also as a way for the Iranian State to achieve the status of "regional player", clearly have the means to intimidate its neighbors.

Mir Hussein Mousavi would probably not reduce aid from his country to Hezbollah and Hamas, because it is part of the dogmas of the regime. In contrast, denouncing "adventurism, instability, extremism, Exhibitionism, superstition" a Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with the incendiary style, including the denial of the Holocaust would have "humiliated the dignity of the Iranians", Hussein Mousavi wants to rebalance the international relations of his country for the benefit of the West, to the Russia.

Once Islamic activist and Marxist, Mir Hussein Moussavi "has evolved to advocate a more liberal economy and could boost some privatizations," explains Clément Therme, the Iran at the French Institute of international relations specialist. Privatization, in "competitive oligarchy" that is the plan, cannot be reserved only for political clans.