The average annual growth is limited to 1

"The rules of the game will change and the next ten years to announce challenge for insurers-rich", warns Accenture in its study on the market in 2020. The firm identifies four scenarios that cross the (more or less favourable) macroeconomic environment and the evolution of consumption patterns (contrast mounted standardization in range). Non-exclusive, they correspond to market situations that may coexist. "A same insurer may conduct a strategy at low prices on activity damage and a high policy p range and custom in life", demonstrates Accenture. The effort of processing to maintain profitability differs from one scenario to another.

1 PRICE WAR

In this scenario, the more likely, the situation remains grim (GDP around 1.3, CAC 40 stagnant, debt of State-controlled), insurance becomes a convenience and the actors engage in a price war. The average annual growth is limited to 1.2 in damages, 3.6 in health-welfare and 0.5 in life. Profitability (ROE) moved to-1.1 in non-life and 1 in life. Migrate to a low cost model to trace the ROE to 6.9 in non-life and 5.8 per cent in life involves "massive savings - of the order of 20 to 30 on the part management-, pooling back-offices and their relocation, the removal of 40 to 50 of the acquisition with impact loads important on the size of the physical networks.", and an investment increased in direct technologies."

2 COMMODITIZATION OF INSURANCE

Commoditization of insurance takes the price down, but the macroeconomic indicators are more favourable (GDP between 2.5 and 3, CAC 40 on the increase, controlled the State debt), which allows a volume growth. It forecast average to 1.9 in damages, 4.3 in health-welfare and 4.8 in life. The ROE rose to 4.5 in non-life and 5.1 in life. "These rates occurred in 9.7 and 8.1 by playing on a decrease in expenses for the acquisition of 30-40 (via a physical network optimization and a report on the direct channels) and a 15-20 reduction of management costs (by"industrialized"information systems and the relocation of transverse functions or trade).". Distribution partnerships will develop.

3 MOUNTED IN RANGE

This scenario, the more positive but unlikely, combines positive macroeconomic Outlook and an evolution of insurance as "a customizable and valued service by the consumer." Growth would be 2.7 per year in damage, 5 in health-welfare and 4.8 in life and ROE from 6 in non-life and 7.5 in life. "The ROE could be improved to 11.6 in non-life and 10.2 in life provided that the insurers are advance skills in Council of their networks and focus their sales on high value customers force." Additional substantial computer investment (management of complex products), the need to contain the burden of claims in a context of high customer service and loyalty actions.

4 MICRO-SEGMENTATION

The economy remains slack but consumers are plaintiffs a growing customization of their contracts. "They want the tailor-made, in real time and at a fair price." "This implies the creation and management of complex, adaptable products almost in real time, in a context of declining prices," decrypts Accenture. Growth rates average annual settled at 1.9 in damages, 4.3 per cent in health-welfare and 0.5 in life. The ROE CAP to 4.7 per cent in non-life and 4.6 in life, but are likely to go up to 7.6 and 6.5. The condition Massive investment to build a subscription custom contracts, in real time and through any channel of communication, and an assessment of the risks to the fair to lower the ratio of loss experience.