Hence the difficulty to know where we are

If the global economy was a bicycle, we would know. After a long descent, are we still in the plain Or on a flat wrong amount Or already on the coteau Our calves have already said us. But the global economy is more complicated. Information emerge with delay. They are broken, sometimes misleading. This is why some say that the inflation line, because it is her that he is, could soon take the Corsican road if we are not careful. While others argue instead that we still long pédalerons on a German motorway. The debate does not deserve to be reserved for only sports commentators. Because it largely determines the price of the first fuel in the world economy: money. I.e., the rate of interest.

As often in cycling races, the long descent hardly attracted interest. Economists were also given a bad name: disinflation. The movement has yet been spectacular. In France, it dates from the mid-1980s. With the oil shock of 1973, the curve of the price rose to a neighbouring height of 10 where she remained for more than a decade before under 4, and even below 2.5 since 1992. Globally, the movement is even more impressive. The same year 1992, global inflation peaked at 36. Since 2001, it fluctuates within a very narrow range between 3.5 and 4.

Whether if price curves will start in the mountain pastures, to understand why together they argue in the plain over the years despite strong shaking, as the tripling of oil prices. There is first the vigilance of the central banks. At the beginning of the 1980s, the US Federal Reserve did not hesitate to break the growing American and world to destroy the channels of us inflation. On the old Continent, the Bundesbank and the Bank of France have also, forged their credibility, that they have forwarded to the European Central Bank. Companies such as individuals don't believe inflation. This confidence is valuable: when they fear inflation, they buy everything - goes, that is heating the economic machine and causes in fine rising feared!

There is also and especially powerful mechanics of globalization. With the opening of China, the India and the former Soviet bloc, hundreds of millions of low paid employees enter the global labour market. According to calculations by Professor Richard Freeman (1), Harvard, this wave has doubled the global workforce, which has now 3 billion people! With the rise of information technologies, companies cut more production to manufacture each component where it is cheapest. With the lowering of trade barriers, competition between producers becomes global. In rich countries, an increasing share of the labour force no longer has the means to impose salary increases. As explained Kenneth Rogoff, another Harvard Professor and former from the IMF, economists have ranger "Phillips curve", that there is an arbitration to do between inflation and unemployment (1), in their huge closet of unnecessary instruments. The United States currently has less than 5 of unemployed without acceleration in wages.

The growth of trade actually turned the gear even price. "Inflation is increasingly determined on a global scale," notes the OECD in its latest "Economic Outlook". Hence the difficulty to know where we are. Term, certainly, globalization will be reset in the hills of inflation. The available labour battalions eventually melt. Wages rise already faster in poor countries and will be closer to levels observed in the rich countries. More rare, raw materials are also more expensive. Are we already there

Anxiety taps central bankers. This is normal: they are paid for the evil of the mountains. "The world economy seems currently face a certain resurgence of inflation, while far from pause, the movement of globalization of economies is accelerating," write Laure Frey and Gilles Moëc in the bulletin of the Bank of France of last August. The patron of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, point the increase in import prices in the euro area. After having declined from 2001 to 2004, these rates (non-energy) have stagnated in 2005 and increase since the beginning of the year. For its part, the IMF said in its latest forecast that "world, strong and persistent growth absorbed production capacity and led to emerging signs of inflationary pressures."

Yes but... There is still much available capacity! This is true for men. In emerging countries, hundreds of millions of rural people have not yet joined the cities, factories and offices. In China alone, "there would thus be at least 100 million people" too much"in agriculture", wrote Françoise Lemoine, China specialist at the center of prospective studies and international information. And machines, also abound. Sure, Europeans and Americans use their equipment to about 85 of their capacity against less than 75 four years ago. But, at the global level, there is still margin. In a sector such as the automobile, the plants could make 81 or 82 million cars against a production of about 70 million units this year. All sectors, investing massively, and not only in China. The global effort of equipment rose by 8 the year for three years (this is also one of the explanations of the economic upturn in Germany, where the industry is specialized in the machine tool). In the extractive industries, many projects announce reductions in prices of metals and oil.

Finally, many companies are making record profits. Their financial health, therefore, cannot serve as a pretext to increase their prices! In the coming months, or even the next few quarters, the inflation curve should not take the profile of a steep trail. Academe the anxiety, continuing globalization to flatten the price.