The part is more difficult for the euro area

The irresistible slide of the dollar does not only the United States. China and oil exporters are also at least partially in winners game the foreign exchange market. The part is more difficult for the euro area.

The United States take advantage of the bargain... for now

This phase of recovery, the weakness of the dollar necessarily benefits the U.S. economy and helps him return to growth, because it strengthens the competitiveness of the enterprises International. Or exports of goods and services, which represent 11 of the GDP, play an important training role. On the other hand, the decline of the greenback should in theory reduce abyssal debt of the United States, whose deficit has exploded since the crisis and should exceed 12 of GDP in 2009-2010 and the external deficit remains considerable. Nevertheless, the main creditor of the first economy in the world is China, the effect is neutralised.

"The main danger of a weak dollar would be the risk of a resumption of inflation, said Jean-Marc Lucas, an economist at BNP Paribas.". However, there is a consensus among economists to estimate this risk very limited in 2009, 2010 and even 2011. And a majority in the Fed defends the same position. "The urgency today would rather avoid deflation.

The increase in consumer prices also slowed in September, 0.2 from August, after an increase of 0.4 the previous month, according to published figures yesterday. Annual slipping since last March, prices are therefore oriented to down to 1.3. It is still far from the objective of the Central Bank, which deems desirable a rise in the price between 1.7 and 2, and thus is not close to raise rates, now close to zero. This limited inflation scenario may however be denied if the price of oil is highly practical.

China enjoys a favourable relationship with the dollar

To have reinstated the fixed link between its currency and the dollar, China now enjoys a considerable power in its outdoor market. What allow it to sit its commercial supremacy (see opposite).

Oil tankers are gaining on the one hand they lose another

Paid in dollars, oil-exporting countries are currently revenues back. At least in theory. In fact, this phenomenon is offset by the increase in the price of oil at $ 75 per barrel, increase by the end announced the recession as well as by the fall of the dollar just. Indeed, exporters naturally tend to raise their prices to counter the weakness of their billing currency. Revenues from the Arab monarchies of the Gulf, the Iran, the Russia or the Venezuela are much better today, with a barrel at $ 75 and a green ticket to 0.66 euro than last December when the dollar was, of course, 0.8 euro but where the barrel was rated only $ 30. Their purchasing power to import European goods is all simply doubled in 10 months. On the assets in these countries, generally placed in majority in the United States, they have, since the trough of the crisis in March, largely won stock field what they have lost due to be denominated.

The Spain and the Germany limit case-sensitive

The countries of the euro area are not housed in the same sign. For some, as the Spain, the component of the foreign trade growth is limited. It is primarily the internal demand which, until the crisis, supported the Spanish dynamics. In this kind of scenario, the increase in the European currency has especially benefit: it translates into a decline in the value of imports, and is therefore in support of purchasing power. This support, valid anywhere in the euro area, "is far from negligible at the time where unemployment and the oil price increase", note Véronique rich-Flores, who heads the economic studies for Société Générale. Finally, among European exporters, some made the evidence, so far, their resistance to currency fluctuations. The emblematic case is that of the Germany, specialized in tools and products for high-end, and therefore less dependent on "factor price." Similarly, a country such as the Slovakia, whose motor production are linked to German industry, positioned on a high-end (Audi, Porsche Cayenne) niche, does not appear in a too critical situation.

Southern Europe suffers

Number of European countries, however, suffer from a bad position to export. "Include the Slovenia, but also southern Europe", summarizes Juan-Carlos Rodado, at Natixis. Their failure is mainly remained on relatively low range productions, and have no real productive specialization. For them, the export price is a factor, "especially in a period where global demand is tight," said Giovanni Ajassa, leading, in Rome, economic studies, BNL (BNP Paribas Group). Increased competition and rising prices: the cocktail is not good, and the Economist admits anxious also for the Italy. "Certainly, Italian companies have sought to range over the last ten years, but manufacturing remains critical in Italy, and many productions are more and more competition from countries like China or the Korea of the South", justifies. The France can, to a lesser extent, fall into this category (see opposite).