But the situation remains highly variable geographical zone to another

The General Assembly of the Association of international air transportation (Iata), which is meeting today and tomorrow in Berlin, will not yet be an opportunity of great celebration. If the rebound of activity since the beginning of the year is confirmed, with the first quarter, an increase in average 9 of the traffic in passengers and 26 for freight, full recovery will take at least two years, said Giovanni Bisignani, Iata Director-General. 230 Companies member airlines of Iata that have already accumulated 50 billion in losses since 2000 did not escape further losses accumulated in 2010 and 2011. Iata, which provided for 2.8 billion of losses for this year, could also review its forecasts upwards, to incorporate the cost of the volcanic crisis, which has been losing turnover $ 1.7 billion.

Signs of improvement

However, the most optimistic will focus on the signs of improvement, which are not lacking. Starting with the first digits of traffic from may, showing a return to strong growth from prior to the volcanic crisis. This rebound in traffic comes rate record fill and a rebound in arrow of the tariffs at the front and the rear of the aircraft. According to Iata, the premium rates (business and first) were thus up 10 on average in the first quarter, but still remain 16 below their levels from before the crisis. Another very positive point: the decline in the price of oil and kerosene in may, and the relative stability of the courses in a range from 100 to 80 dollars per barrel for six months. A relatively high ceiling level, but that should not be crossed according to the Iata. Finally, the results of the first quarter, although traditionally poor, leave also appear a net improvement in the General, with a further reduced accumulated loss situation of 50 compared to the first quarter of 2009, to $ 2 billion, and a deficit of 447 million operating result, against 2.9 billion last year to the same period.

But the situation remains highly variable geographical zone to another. If the companies in Asia-Pacific and Latin America are generally too beneficiaries in the first quarter and should finish the year in the Green, European companies still increased their losses in the first quarter, reaching 1.9 billion according to Iata. American companies are also in the Red (-766 million), even if they have reduced their quarterly losses by half. This contrast is found in the course of Fellowship of European carriers, down 20 since the beginning of the year, and on the point of joining those of US companies. This underperformance of Europe, hosting but the main world leaders of the international air transport, is explained by the weakness of the European economy. But it could also lead to a loss of part of the Gulf companies sustainable market. These were the only ones not to slow down their growth and the rate of delivery of new equipment, still out of Boeing and Airbus factories at the rate of 100 per month. There is no doubt that they should be the big winners of the redistribution of the cards made by the crisis.