while leaving augurer of a significant decline in consumption

Nicolas Sarkozy must submit, in early November, a new cancer plan. On this occasion, a multi-year cigarette prices and important increase is expected by anti-smoking associations and medical environments. The Minister of health, Roselyne Bachelot, including argued publicly in recent weeks for an increase of 10 per year for three years. Objective: bring down sales and consumption of tobacco, which are distributed to increase (see graph). But the tobacco may be disappointed. The head of State, to the listening of the UMP and the majority parliamentarians very reassembled on many tax topics (professional tax, carbon tax, etc.), should favour a rise in prices limited to 6 in November, without commitment on additional bearings in 2010 and 2011.

It was not initially proposed schema. Nicolas Sarkozy had first asked the Government floor on an increase in the price of 20 in three steps quite close: 6 to 7 immediately, and then a recovery of the same order in July 2010, and again in January 2011. It allowed to avoid the risk of destabilization of the market increased more than 10 at a time (fraud, cross-border sales, etc.), while leaving augurer of a significant decline in consumption. But the tone has visibly changed earlier this week in the Elysee Palace, to the surprise of the departments.

However, the part is not completely performed, since the associations will seek to influence the Elysian choices in the last straight line. The Alliance against tobacco, which unites many actors, pointed out yesterday "that an increase of 6 will have one effect of inflating margins of an industry and already strong trade prosperous". The Alliance "expected a strong gesture from the President of the Republic". And including a multiannual scheme.

Cancel a windfall effect

Feeling the wind turning, the rapporteur of the social security budget, Yves Bur (UMP), which had threatened last weekend to vote an increase in taxes on tobacco by 10, has decided to change foot Tuesday afternoon (after a meeting of the UMP): he is ultimately simply to approve an increase of the tax of 6 yesterday in the Committee on Social Affairswith the assurance of its support group meeting. Even if it is too little, believes, to reduce the consumption of tobacco in a meaningful way. Its objective is to avoid at least a "unacceptable consequence", to increase the profits of manufacturers of cigarettes "close to EUR 66 million". If the 6 increase was at the initiative of the industrialists, without changes in taxation, would be "to let manufacturers thrive on disease and death that results from smoking, and to lose public finance an important part of the adjustment of prices", he explains.

To cancel this effect of boon, the amendment increases taxes facing tobacco - excise duties - of 0.6 points. It also increases the minimum of perception, a tax intended to ensure that the manufacturers do not launch in a price war. The Government would prefer that the increase in tobacco prices will be no change in the taxation, and excludes in any case an increase in excise duty.